This is an excerpt from our Modern Retail+ Research report The 2026 guide to holiday marketing strategies, including A-Frame Brands, Mastercard and Ritual, which examined which commerce channels are dominating marketers’ holiday strategies. The report is based on a survey of 90 brand and retailer professionals, as well as individual interviews with marketing executives.
In Modern Retail+ Research’s holiday report last year, brands and retailers expressed conservative expectations for their 2025 holiday revenue. This year, however, marketers are more optimistic. The majority of survey respondents (76%) said they expect their 2026 holiday revenue to increase 1%-31% or more in comparison to their 2025 holiday revenue.
Modern Retail also asked respondents if they expected their 2026 holiday revenue to decrease in comparison to their 2025 holiday revenue. No respondents (0%) said they expected their holiday revenue this year to decrease by more than 11% in comparison to last year.
While survey respondents were optimistic about their holiday revenue expectations, some of the marketing executives Modern Retail spoke with said inflation is weighing on their minds.
“It is getting brutal out there,” said Ari Bloom, founder and CEO of brand incubator A-Frame Brands. “Costs are getting so high, and the economy is soft right now, and probably will get softer as we get into the fall. The cost issue is going to be really hard for a lot of smaller companies to absorb with heavy discounting.”
Bloom added that the political calendar may play a role in holiday spending as well. “When you’re in an election year, you’ve got a different dynamic because there’s a lot of discussion around inflation,” Bloom said. “People will have a sentiment of whether the environment is inflationary, whether things are too expensive or there’s an affordability crisis.”
Laura Brodie, chief growth officer at supplement company Ritual, said she too is concerned about consumer confidence but remains optimistic overall. “Even with the state of the economy and consumer sentiment sitting at a pretty low point in history, I’m bullish,” Brodie said. “Spending is resilient. It’s less about what happens in holiday spending growth year over year, which will probably be modest. Where the spend actually gets allocated will be interesting to see.”
Brodie said she expects consumers to spend more on experiences this holiday season. “We’re seeing a big cultural shift towards nostalgia, being intentional and spending time with family,” she said. “I anticipate people will gravitate towards gifts as experiences or things that feel personal rather than mass purchased. That includes brands that have a distinct point of view, or are mission driven or founder-led. Especially in health and wellness, brands that really speak to a consumer will have a strong opportunity to win.”
While survey respondents expressed optimistic revenue expectations for the 2026 holiday season, the majority of brands and retailers said they don’t have plans to offer deeper holiday discounts this year compared to last year. Eighty-one percent of brand and retailer pros said that they expect their 2026 holiday discounts to be about the same as their 2025 discounts.
Instead of offering deeper discounts, some brands and retailers are turning to other promotional strategies like bundling products or adding a gift with purchase to entice customers. A-Frame’s Bloom said that economic pressures, including higher transportation and fuel costs, present an additional challenge for the 2026 holiday season.
“This year will be more sensitive than last year because the economic situation is more difficult and prices are higher,” he said. “We’ve been talking a lot about bundling versus discounting because holiday is a time when people will buy multiples. They might buy the same gift for three different people, and they may buy it for themselves to try on top of it.”
Bloom added that offering a gift with a purchase can encourage holiday shoppers to become repeat buyers. “We recommend products, even if it’s trial sizing, that are able to be thrown in a bag,” Bloom said. “It is a really good way to get people who are buying a gift to keep something for themselves as part of the transaction. There’s ways for brands to think about getting more value out to the customer.”
Ritual’s Brodie said offering perks to existing customers during the holiday season encourages brand loyalty and can temper the expense of new customer acquisition. “Offering exclusivity to existing customers and to pull people back with something that feels unique, a compelling gift with purchase or seasonal drop. … The cost of acquisition is high during holiday, so being able to tap an existing audience can be cost-effective.”
She explained that Ritual has also partnered with other wellness brands to cross-promote products and provide a gift with purchase during the holidays. “Brands that are in similar sizes can come together and create something that feels compelling that can benefit both brands,” Brodie said. “We’ve partnered with like-minded brands like [skincare brand] Osea and swapped gift with purchases.”
Susan Grossman, evp of consumer acquisition and engagement services at Mastercard said in an email that she expects brands to invest in rewards, exclusive access and experiences that extend beyond the holidays this year. “The more sustainable approach is to think about value more broadly. That could be a personalized offer, exclusive access, relevant recommendations, a seamless experience, or an incentive timed to the right moment,” Grossman said.
“But to do that, you need better signals and smart personalization,” she added. “When brands understand intent, they can be more precise with when, where, and how they use incentives. Instead of blanket discounting, they can create value for the consumers who need an extra nudge while continuing to build long-term loyalty with those who already have an affinity for the brand.”
