- ORCL
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For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – September 9, 2026 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Oracle ORCL.
Oracle’s $638B Backlog Meets Its Balance Sheet Thursday
There is no company in technology where the gap between operating momentum and share price is wider thanOracle.
The database giant reports fiscal first-quarter results on Thursday after the close. It arrives carrying a remaining performance obligation of roughly $638 billion — a backlog that grew 363% last year and now dwarfs the company’s entire $67.4 billion of annual revenue.
Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93% last quarter. Management is guiding to 34% revenue growth this fiscal year. Yet the stock is down 17.7% year to date and roughly 28% over the past twelve months, against a 12.8% gain for the S&P 500.
That disconnect is the entire story, and Thursday is the next referendum on it.
What Should Oracle Investors Expect?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for earnings of $1.74 per share on revenue of approximately $19.14 billion. That revenue figure implies growth of more than 28%, consistent with management’s guidance for a 27% to 29% increase. Consensus sits comfortably within Oracle’s own EPS guidance range of $1.72 to $1.76.
The number that will actually move the stock is cloud growth. Management guided first-quarter cloud revenue to expand 58% to 64% year over year. Printing inside that band would validate the thesis that the backlog is converting on schedule. Falling short would raise uncomfortable questions about whether $638 billion of contracted obligations translates into revenue at the pace investors have been promised.
Oracle carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) paired with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +1.1%. Our research shows that when a positive Earnings ESP combines with a Zacks Rank of #3 or better, a positive surprise follows about 70% of the time.
The Balance Sheet Is the Story
Here is what should temper any enthusiasm about that setup. Last quarter, Oracle beat consensus earnings by 7.65% and revenue by 0.54%. The stock fell about 9% despite the double-beat report.
Investors are no longer grading Oracle on demand. They are grading it on how demand gets financed.
Looking back at fiscal 2026, free cash flow came in at negative $23.7 billion, a swing from roughly breakeven the prior year, as capital expenditures jumped 162% to $55.7 billion. Operating cash flow actually rose 54% to $32 billion — the business is generating cash — but the build is consuming it faster.
