Investing.com — U.S. e-commerce growth has been stronger than expected in 2026, running at about 10% year-on-year through the first three quarters versus Bernstein’s 8% forecast at the start of the year, helped in part by AI-driven improvements in Google and Meta advertising that are boosting conversion rates.
Bernstein estimates third-quarter growth at about 8.4%, while growth across the second and third quarters was about 10.4% after adjusting for the timing of Prime Day. First-quarter growth was 9.7%.
The broker said there was no single explanation for the stronger performance, but pointed to better digital advertising, resilient consumer spending and less aggressive competition from online retailers such as Temu and Shein. It sees the improvement in advertising as a potentially lasting tailwind.
The top 14 U.S. e-commerce platforms accounted for about 82% of gross merchandise value in the second quarter, up roughly 3 percentage points from a year earlier.
Shopify and Walmart made the biggest gains among large platforms, while Carvana and eBay also outperformed relative to their size.
Shopify’s share of U.S. e-commerce rose to 14.2% from 13.2%, while Walmart’s increased to 8.7% from 7.8%. Amazon’s share edged up to 42.9% from 42.3%.
Bernstein estimates second-quarter growth of 52% for Carvana, 25% for Walmart, 24% for eBay and 21% for Shopify, compared with 14% for Amazon and 12% for the overall market.
Amazon, Shopify and Walmart captured most of the additional online spending, although Amazon grew more slowly than Walmart, Shopify, Carvana, eBay and Costco.
Company-specific factors are also supporting growth. Amazon is expanding its everyday essentials and same-day delivery offerings, while Shopify is benefiting from larger enterprise customers and international expansion.
Wayfair’s rewards programme accounts for almost half of its estimated growth this year, while eBay is seeing stronger demand for collectibles, second-hand goods, auto parts and accessories.
Bernstein cautioned that higher interest rates and rising oil prices could weigh on consumer spending, although company management teams remain broadly positive. Analysts are currently assuming U.S. e-commerce growth will slow in 2027.
If growth remains around 10% next year, Bernstein expects analysts to raise revenue forecasts across the sector. A return to mid-single-digit growth, however, could lead to lower valuation multiples.
Bernstein rates Amazon, Shopify and Wayfair “outperform”, while eBay and Etsy are rated “market perform”. It estimates online retail penetration at 17%.
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