Rivian vs. the S&P 500: Which Investment Wins Through 2030?
Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN), a maker of high-end electric vehicles, went public at $78 per share on Nov. 10, 2021. It closed at a record high of $172.01 just six days later, but it only trades at about $15 today. During the same period, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) rallied nearly 120%.
Rivian initially impressed investors because it was already producing thousands of vehicles, and it was backed by Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). But in 2022, it produced only 24,337 vehicles — compared to its original target of 50,000 — as it struggled with supply chain issues. By early 2023, Ford had sold nearly all of its Rivian shares.
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Rivian more than doubled its production to 57,232 vehicles in 2023 as it overcame some of those challenges, but that figure shrank again to 49,476 in 2024 and 42,284 in 2025. That failure to expand its business, along with its staggering losses, weighed down its stock.
But with a market cap of $22 billion, Rivian trades at less than three times this year’s sales. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which is worth $1.5 trillion, trades at 14 times this year’s sales. So could some fresh catalysts drive investors to revalue Rivian as a higher-growth EV stock? Let’s see if it can bounce back and outperform the S&P 500 through the end of the decade.
What are Rivian’s upcoming catalysts?
Rivian produces four vehicles: the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, R2 SUV, and custom electric delivery vans (EDVs) for Amazon and other companies. The R1T and R1S both start at around $80,000.
Those high prices limit Rivian’s total addressable market, so it launched the more affordable R2 earlier this year, which starts at less than $60,000. It plans to launch even cheaper trims of the R2 — which will start between $45,000 and $54,000 — throughout late 2026 and 2027.
The R2 costs roughly half as much to build as its R1 vehicles, thanks to its simpler design, consolidation of its electrical systems, and streamlined powertrains and sensors. Therefore, Rivian can sell the R2 at higher gross margins than the R1, even with a lower price tag.
Rivian expects its deliveries to soar from 42,247 vehicles in 2025 to 65,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026 (including about 20,000-25,000 R2 SUVs). If it achieves that goal, analysts expect its revenue to surge 38% to $7.4 billion this year and 58% to $11.8 billion in 2027.
