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Salesforce (CRM) has moved back into focus for investors after a sector rotation into software stocks, renewed attention on its Agentforce AI platform, and rising interest ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
Salesforce’s recent 1-day share price return of 2.71% and 30-day share price return of 14.86% suggest momentum has picked up again, even though the year to date share price return is down 22.66% and the 1-year total shareholder return is down 19.59%.
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After a sharp bounce yet share price declines over the year, Salesforce now sits in a more crowded AI trade at around US$196. Is the current valuation still skewed toward upside for new buyers, or has the easy part of the move passed?
Most Popular Narrative: 23.4% Undervalued
According to one of the most followed narratives on Salesforce, a fair value of $255.90 versus the recent $196.14 share price points to a sizable valuation gap that hinges on how durable the core business really is.
The per-seat licence was only ever the toll booth. The asset is the governed system of record: every customer, every deal, every entitlement, for about 80% of the Fortune 500. And the one thing an autonomous AI agent cannot do is act on a customer without getting into that record first. An agent with no permissions, no governance and no audit trail is not an asset, it is a liability waiting to happen. So the same automation wave that threatens the seat count is exactly what drives every serious enterprise deeper into the data layer Salesforce owns. The meter changes from per-person to per-action. It does not disappear.
Want to see what is baked into that $255.90 fair value for Salesforce at a 9% discount rate? The narrative leans heavily on recurring revenue, firm margins, and a reset multiple. The specific growth and cash flow paths behind those assumptions might surprise you. The full story joins those moving pieces into a single valuation roadmap.
Result: Fair Value of $255.90 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this Salesforce narrative still depends on Agentforce and data consumption offsetting any pressure on per seat revenue, as well as on Microsoft not eroding large enterprise relationships.
