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PREMIUM
Business
Equipment
For-Hire
Replacement demand revives trailer market
Fleets begin to replace aging equipment as freight rates improve and maintenance costs climb
September 26, 2026 7:00 AM, EDT
ACT Research forecasts that trailer sales will reach 198,000 units in 2026 and swell to 262,000 next year. (Krista Bussey/Transport Topics)
Key Takeaways:
- Fleets are resuming delayed trailer replacement purchases as freight conditions improve and rising maintenance costs make aging equipment less economical.
- ACT Research forecasts 198,000 trailer sales in 2026 and 262,000 in 2027, though current orders do not indicate broad fleet expansion.
- Wabash expects production to ramp over nine to 12 months, while higher prices and supply constraints could limit equipment availability.
Fleets that deferred their usual trailer purchases during the freight recession are beginning to move forward with replenishing their aging equipment as maintenance costs rise and freight market conditions improve.
While not typically expanding their trailer fleets, many buyers are ordering replacements at higher levels after delaying equipment investments during the freight market downturn that took hold in 2022 and continued for several years.
Steve Bennett, president and chief operating officer at Utility Trailer Manufacturing, said the “vast majority” of demand is being driven by replacement purchases.
Motor carriers didn’t follow normal replacement schedules during the prolonged freight rate recession, Bennett said, noting that some of Utility’s best customers haven’t bought in three years.
Chris Hammond, executive vice president of industry affairs and strategic accounts for Great Dane, said a “large portion” of purchases are replacements.
“I feel like we’re at least going to hit replacement cycle levels, and then maybe get above that,” he said, reiterating the cyclical nature of the trailer market.
Hammond said fleets overbought trailers in the previous upcycle, and now consumer demand and tonnage remain flat. But the freight economy is improving, and maintenance costs are rising as trailers age.
Great Dane’s order backlogs are expanding, though the trailer maker still isn’t seeing the order activity it experienced in the last upcycle.
Drew Schwartzhoff, senior vice president and chief commercial officer at Wabash, said customer conversations suggest the market is moving into an early recovery, but it’s still transitional with near-term activity reflecting pent-up replacement demand and improving economics.
Dry vans and platform trailers have the biggest momentum. The manufacturer ended the second quarter with a $956 million backlog, up 14% sequentially.
“The more telling point is that backlog grew during a quarter when it would typically decline, which we view as an indication that some customers are moving from deferral to committed demand,” Schwartzhoff said.
Many buyers are ordering replacements at higher levels after delaying equipment investments during the freight market downturn. (Krista Bussey/Transport Topics)
Wabash opened its 2027 dry van order book early because customers wanted earlier visibility into capacity, delivery windows and pricing.
“We expect production activity to ramp over the next nine to 12 months as replacement demand develops,” he said.
ACT Research forecasts that trailer sales will reach 198,000 units in 2026 and swell to 262,000 next year.
However, a July survey of for-hire carriers found the “overwhelming majority” of purchase plans represent replacement, said Jennifer McNealy, the firm’s director of research analysis and publications.
“There were a few that said, ‘If we get the lane, if we get the customer, then we will buy for that growth.’ But that’s an if-then situation versus what we know we’re going to buy … for replacement,’” she said.
While fleets are regaining confidence due to improved freight rates, volume isn’t growing substantially, and carriers are still rebuilding their profit margins, said Dan Moyer, FTR Transportation Intelligence’s senior analyst for commercial vehicles.
So far, net orders for the order season from September 2025 through July 2026 were 5% higher than the previous season, while year-to-date orders were 25% higher year over year.
“That is meaningful improvement, but not yet enough to indicate a broad fleet-expansion cycle,” Moyer said.
Freight recovery bolsters equipment market
Motor carriers have been able to secure higher rates this year due to a reduction in trucking capacity rather than an increase in freight volume.
Unprofitable fleets have exited the market. Capacity has been further tightened by stricter federal enforcement of regulations regarding non-domiciled commercial drivers, English-language requirements, electronic logging devices and commercial driver license schools.
Arpan Podduturi of Samsara examines how AI, telematics and onboard cameras are converging to protect drivers and reduce risk. Tune in above or by going to RoadSigns.ttnews.com.
Ken Vieth, ACT Research’s president and senior analyst, believes the industry is at the beginning of the carrier profit cycle, in which truckers that make more money buy more equipment.
This process began in December when some fleets started pre-buying Class 8 trucks to get ahead of stricter federal nitrogen-oxide emissions standards that take effect at the beginning of 2027.
The Class 8 order backlog for U.S. manufacturers swelled from 69,500 units in July 2025 to 147,100 units this July — a 112% increase. At the same time, the trailer backlog expanded by a more modest 13%, from 69,300 units to 78,400.
“We haven’t seen the recovery in trailers yet like we’ve seen in Class 8, but ultimately they do move together over time,” he said.
Manufacturers align with demand
Trailer makers are keeping disciplined schedules rather than ramping up production, FTR’s Moyer said. Manufacturers remain cautious and are aligning their production with demand.
Flatbed, dry van and refrigerated van backlogs are increasing, ACT’s McNealy and Vieth said. The flatbed backlog is above the long-term average, a primary driver being the need to service buildouts of data centers and accompanying utility infrastructure. Backlogs for dry vans and reefers are below the long-term average but increasing.
Bennett said Utility’s refrigerated, dry van and flatbed trailers are sold out for the year, and the company is filling in the first quarter for next year’s models.
Dry van and flatbed demand is strong, but the growth has been gradual. It’s in the refrigerated sector where Utility has been scrambling. The market has been down for a while, and older assets use more fuel and may not meet customers’ cooling standards.
Premier Trailer Leasing has seen its refrigerated trailer utilization climb 20 points this past year, said Craig Barth, the firm’s chief financial officer.
ACT’s Vieth said the industry is “on the front end of the turn in reefer van demand.”
While tractors and dry vans are starting to age, the reefer fleet is the oldest it has ever been. Fleets invested heavily in reefers in the years after passage of the 2011 Food Safety Modernization Act, and those trailers are reaching the end of their life cycles.
“Now that the trucking industry is making money again, they are going to decide that they want to buy refrigerated equipment,” Vieth said. “The problem is, all the rest of the truckers are going to make the same decision to buy refrigerated equipment, and the industry’s capacity to supply that refrigerated equipment is going to be supply chain constrained.”
It may take several years to get reefer van production up to demand levels, he explained.
Heading toward the ‘Wild West’?
Now that fleets are back in the market, they’re finding trailer prices have increased substantially.
Utility’s Bennett said year-over-year cost increases for some reefer configurations have exceeded $10,000.
Tariffs on trailer components such as steel, copper and aluminum have been a driver.
New antidumping and countervailing duty provisions also are keeping fleets cautious, FTR’s Moyer said. Antidumping duties are imposed when foreign producers are found to be selling equipment in the United States below “normal value,” while countervailing duties are designed to offset subsidies provided by foreign governments.
Despite the higher pricing, Barth said Premier Trailer Leasing purchased “greater than a thousand” trailers in the fourth quarter, a period when it normally doesn’t buy any, and next year will buy more than it will acquire this year.
He said more fleets are turning to leasing and renting trailers because of uncertainty and high operating expenses. Utilization rates at Premier are running in the high 90s, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Barth expects fleets to buy more equipment if there’s any increase in freight demand to go along with the supply-side recovery. However, equipment may be harder to find, which will further increase prices.
“It’ll be the Wild West in transportation,” he said, “because everyone will be clamoring for equipment and routes and services, and they will be at a premium.”
Used Class 8 truck sales rise in June as inventory stays tight
