Estimating personal protective equipment (PPE) demand during a pandemic is a critical planning challenge. This report presents an occupation-based framework to estimate the vital workforce size and PPE need. Estimates range from 5.3 million to 85.7 million workers depending on assumptions applied. An interactive dashboard supports flexible, scenario-based planning at the national, state, and regional levels.
Estimating how much personal protective equipment (PPE) will be needed during a pandemic, and for whom, is a critical but difficult planning challenge. Broad, sector-based approaches to defining essential workers obscure significant differences in exposure risk across occupations within the same sector.
In this report, RAND researchers present an occupation-based framework for estimating the size of the vital workforce and associated PPE demand during a respiratory-transmission pandemic. The framework combines occupation-level workplace characteristics with federal and state employment data and industry-level economic multipliers. They produce estimates of workplace exposure risk, identify occupations that can mitigate exposure through remote work, and assess the broader economic significance of occupational disruption.
The analysis is implemented in an interactive dashboard that allows planners to explore multiple scenarios at the national, state, and regional levels. Estimates of workers requiring PPE range from 5.3 million to 85.7 million depending on which sectors, risk thresholds, remote-work assumptions, and economic criteria are applied.
The framework is designed not to produce a single definitive count but to support flexible, scenario-based planning. It offers emergency managers and policymakers a more defensible and adaptable foundation for PPE stockpiling, workforce prioritization, and pandemic-preparedness decisions.
Key Takeaways
Sector-based planning obscures meaningful differences in worker risk
- Within the same sector, workers can face vastly different exposure levels.
- Occupation-level data better capture who actually needs protection and how much.
PPE demand estimates vary widely depending on planning assumptions
- Estimates range from 5.3 million to 85.7 million workers, depending on the sectors, risk thresholds, remote-work assumptions, and economic criteria applied.
- About 39 percent of critical-sector workers can work remotely, dropping the on-site estimate from 85.7 million to 52 million.
- Applying both above-median exposure risk and above-median economic importance narrows the estimate to just 5.3 million workers.
- Baseline PPE demand reaches 8 million to 10 million workers before any pandemic, establishing a floor for supply chain planning.
Scenario-based planning is more defensible than a single fixed estimate
- The interactive dashboard lets planners adjust assumptions across risk, economics, geography, and sector criticality.
- No single estimate is correct; the framework’s value lies in its flexibility and transparency.
- Outputs are available at the national, state, and regional levels.
Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Web-Only
- Year: 2026
- Pages: 28
- DOI:https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA5083-1
- Document Number: RR-A5083-1
Citation
Chicago Manual of Style
Strong, Aaron, Henry H. Willis, Casey Aveggio, and Cheryl K. Montemayor, Personal Protective Equipment Prioritization and Demand: Using Occupational Characteristics to Understand Risk and Benefits. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA5083-1.html.
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