September 10th, 2026 · by Trefis TeamCRMYTD-7.4%SPYYTD+12.1%QQQYTD+16.8%
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Salesforce (CRM) shares have remained essentially flat over the past twelve months, slipping 2.3% and lagging the broader market by roughly 20 percentage points. The business underneath has become far more profitable than its own history and far more indebted at the same time. If you own it, the live question is whether this is a riskier company than the one you bought.
How Much Of Salesforce Is Now Financed By Debt?
Debt funds 38.1% of Salesforce’s assets. Over the past 14 years, that share has averaged 14.8%. Common equity now sits junior to a substantially expanded debt load following recent senior note issuances.
Salesforce has been moving a great deal of capital over the same stretch. It is running a $25 billion accelerated share repurchase that management expects will retire at least 14% of shares outstanding, at an average of $176 a share so far against $244.16 today. Informatica is already inside the revenue line, and Contentful and Fin are due to close in the coming weeks. Fiscal 2027 revenue is guided at about $46 billion, a raise that already includes about $200 million expected from those two closings—making the share repurchase the central capital narrative management focused on during the fiscal Q2 2027 call.
Can Salesforce Carry It?
On the cash flow, yes, for now. Across the prior 14 years, Salesforce earned thin margins on the operating line, averaging a 2.2% operating margin against a latest reading of 21.5%. Free cash flow now runs at 34.5% of revenue against a 14-year average of 20.2%. A business converting a third of its revenue into cash, against a fifth over that period, can carry borrowings far more comfortably than the older Salesforce could.
A second cushion matters more to a lender than any margin. Salesforce is sitting on $33.5 billion in current remaining performance obligations—contracted revenue due to be recognized within the next twelve months—up 14% year over year in constant currency and a point ahead of guidance, which management attributes to strength in Slack, Agentforce, and Data 360. Debt carried against signed contracts is a different proposition from debt carried against a forecast.
Key Risks to Monitor
The line to watch is not the margin; it is how fast the cash grows. Salesforce guides fiscal 2027 subscription and support revenue to grow slightly above 12% year over year, and operating and free cash flow to grow approximately 4% to 5%. Subscription revenue is compounding at more than twice the pace of the cash that services the debt. Leverage this high beside margins this good is the most unusual joint configuration in the fourteen years of data behind it.
So yes, Salesforce is riskier than it was, and better able to pay than it was. The shares have run 36.2 points ahead of the market over the past three months, even as the twelve-month return stays slightly negative. What would change the verdict is the cash line slipping under the guided 4% to 5% once Contentful and Fin are inside it. Our drawdown defenders screen ranks the companies that actually hold their ground when the market turns.
Evaluating Salesforce’s Valuation and Risk Profile
Investors evaluating the stock today may find the cash flow profile more compelling than the historical balance sheet. If the call feels harder than it once did, it is worth seeing what else you could hold instead. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio suits investors who would rather own a set of durable businesses than keep checking one. That portfolio has a track record of outpacing the three major indices.
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