So far in President Trump’s second term, prices in the US have risen only about half as quickly compared to his predecessor’s four years in office. Yet Trump has a 72% disapproval rating on the issue and risks paying a steep political price — just as former President Joe Biden did — with voters drawing a direct connection between rising prices and the president’s policies.
In the last election cycle, prices of all items rose more than 20% during Biden’s term, sparking widespread voter angst. This time around, price growth is notably slower, rising 5.4% in a little less than two years since Inauguration Day.
But a Yahoo Finance analysis of price data shows that a few major outliers have hit Americans’ wallets in an outsized way, largely due to increases in goods affected by the war in Iran and tariffs.
Fuel oil and gasoline are perhaps the most dramatic examples, spiking over 30% beginning in March in response to the war in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
And voters have noticed, as evidenced in poll after poll. A New York Times/Siena poll released this week found 73% of likely voters disapprove of the president’s handling of gas prices.
Trump underscored the salience of energy prices when he posted a charge this week that “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the US Midterm Election.”
Trump has often pushed back against questions about high energy prices, saying they won’t be a problem once the Iran war ends.
Link between price spikes and Trump policies
The connection between price increases and Trump’s tariff policy has also been in evidence.
Coffee prices have risen nearly 23% during Trump’s second term (more than double the rate under Biden) as tariffs raised prices before Trump scrapped many of the coffee duties late last year in response to coffee drinkers’ unhappiness.
Goods like toys and footwear have likewise risen rapidly as importers from China and elsewhere in Asia faced new tariffs. Toys are a particularly stark example, falling by 4.6% during Biden’s term and then rising by 7.8% so far in Trump’s term.
“Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally,” Trump said in a rare acknowledgment of tariff-fueled price increases when he was pressed on the issue in April.
Other goods have moved in the opposite direction. Eggs jumped by an average of 2.57% each month when Biden was in the White House, but have dropped 3.82% each month of Trump’s term so far, the analysis shows.
