Citi expects Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN), the mining and commodities group, to benefit from stronger marketing earnings in 2026 after it raised guidance for the division and its long-term profit range.
Glencore now expects earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) from marketing to exceed $5 billion in 2026, above its previous guidance and close to Citi’s $5.4 billion forecast.
The bank said the upgraded outlook reflected strong performance in the first half of 2026 and favourable conditions across crude oil, refined products, gas and freight markets.
Visible Alpha consensus currently stands at $2 billion, meaning Citi expects the guidance change to drive upgrades to market expectations.
Glencore also lifted its long-term marketing EBIT guidance range to $2.8 billion to US$4.2 billion, from US$2.3 billion to US$3.5 billion previously.
The revised range implies a midpoint of $3.5 billion, compared with $2.9 billion under the previous framework.
Citi said Glencore’s updated marketing guidance is now based on capital allocation through risk-managed inventory investments and competitive funding costs, with the framework applying from 2027.
Risk-managed inventory investments, or RMIs, are the capital Glencore commits to supporting its global physical commodities trading activities.
Glencore had $32.2 billion of RMIs at the end of the first half, up from $25.4 billion in June 2025, highlighting the increased scale of the marketing <a href="https://bitcomme.com/free-business-startup-series-to-kick-off-oct-13-through-americas-sbdc-at-wtamu/” title=”Free Business Startup Series to Kick Off Oct. 13 Through America’s SBDC at WTAMU”>business.
Citi retained its ‘buy’ rating on Glencore and made no change to its stated target price of £7.80.
The company also expects its secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange to begin trading on 14 October.
