MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 4.3% to hit US$10b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$9.19, some 2.8% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MercadoLibre after the latest results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MercadoLibre’s 24 analysts is for revenues of US$41.2b in 2026. This would reflect a notable 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.8% to US$38.50. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$40.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$39.98 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for MercadoLibre
The consensus price target held steady at US$2,234, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on MercadoLibre, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$2,800 and the most bearish at US$1,750 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of MercadoLibre’shistorical trends, as the 37% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 33% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So it’s pretty clear that MercadoLibre is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MercadoLibre. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have forecasts for MercadoLibre going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for MercadoLibre you should know about.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touchwith us directly.Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqGS:MELI
MercadoLibre
Operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally.
Exceptional growth potential with excellent balance sheet.
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