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E-commerce platform Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) is doing something big companies rarely do: growing faster as it gets bigger. Gross merchandise volume (GMV), the dollar value of everything its merchants sell through the platform, grew 12% in 2022 and has accelerated every year since — 20%, then 24%, then 29% in 2025. And 2026 is running faster still.
However, the stock hasn’t followed the same line. It trades around $148 as of this writing, about 19% off its 52-week high of $182.19.
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Where will Shopify stock be in five years? I think it hinges on a few numbers the company reports every quarter — how fast volume grows, how much of it Shopify keeps, and how much of that turns into cash. It also hinges on how much of all that is already in the price.
Faster every year
Shopify’s second-quarter report, released in early August, extended the pattern. Revenue climbed 34% year over year to $3.6 billion, the second straight quarter of 34% growth, and GMV rose 32% to $115.6 billion.
For scale, Shopify estimates its merchants handled more than 14% of U.S. e-commerce in 2025.
“GMV growth accelerated on top of last year’s already strong Q2 with solid results across all merchant sizes, channels, and geographies,” said chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister in the second-quarter earnings release.
Of course, a five-year view also has to account for artificial intelligence (AI). If AI shopping tools help merchants sell more, volume per merchant can keep climbing. If they mostly make it easier for anyone to launch a competing storefront, they raise competition among Shopify’s merchants instead.
The reported figures don’t settle it yet.
Can Shopify keep more of each dollar?
Volume only matters to shareholders after Shopify takes its cut. The company’s take rate, or revenue as a share of GMV, came to about 3.1% last quarter. That was a touch higher than a year earlier, as merchants adopted more of its services.
Merchant solutions revenue (payments and the other services merchants pay for as they sell) rose 37% year over year to $2.8 billion, while subscription revenue grew 22% to $802 million. Merchant solutions now make up about 78% of total revenue. Notably, those are lower-margin dollars. Gross margin there runs near 38%, versus about 80% on subscriptions. That mix is why gross profit rose 31% last quarter, trailing revenue’s 34% growth — a gap management expects again in the third quarter.
