Key Takeaways
- Shopify stock is up 33% in the past month (through Monday’s close), and about half of that came in the two sessions after it brought Shop Pay checkout to Meta’s Muse AI agent.
- Amazon had blocked Muse from its site the day before, and Shopify says an order placed by an AI agent earns it the same as an order on a merchant’s own store.
- Analyst calls and target raises carried most of the rest, and the stock now trades close to the Street’s $176 mean target at about 81x forward earnings.
- Third-quarter results come before the open on Nov. 3, and the stock needs a beat that lifts next year’s estimates to keep climbing.
Shopify (SHOP) stock is up 33% in the past month (through Monday’s close), while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.4%.
And Shopify shareholders have Muse to thank.
The day after Amazon said no
On Sunday, Sept. 20, Amazon (AMZN) started blocking Muse, the AI agent from Meta Platforms (META), from shopping its site. The next day, Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke posted on X that Shopify was “partnering deeply with Muse to enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores.”
Shares jumped 7.3% that Monday and another 7.1% on Tuesday: about half the month’s gain in two sessions. A leaked Muse checkout screen listing Meta Pay next to Shop Pay didn’t stop the run.
Agents pay full freight
The best part is what Shopify earns on those orders. On the Q2 call, President Harley Finkelstein said agentic transactions “carry the exact economics as an online store transaction.”
And there are more of them. In Q2, AI-driven orders to Shopify stores tripled from a year earlier, while gross merchandise volume rose 32% to $116 billion.
The risk is that Meta eventually wants a cut of every sale Muse makes.
TIKR tracks 54 analysts on Shopify. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Shopify, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Shopify’s Analyst Ratings
Then Wall Street piled on
Shares rose 5.8% on Oct. 5, when Piper Sandler said demand for migrations to Shopify had increased materially (softer jobs data helped, too). They added 4.9% on Oct. 12, as Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $158 from $145 and Deutsche Bank said Shopify can win big from agentic commerce over the long run. JPMorgan, Baird and RBC lifted theirs to $190 or $200.
Priced for a strong Nov. 3
Estimates climbed even faster than the stock, so Shopify’s forward P/E fell to about 81x, from 95x a year earlier.
That’s still a rich multiple. And the stock has caught up with the Street’s mean price target, which climbed from about $147 in early July to about $176.
Shopify reports third-quarter results before the open on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and management has guided to revenue growth in the low 30s.
My take: The agentic edge is real. But at 81x, I’d hold and wait for a Q3 beat that pushes 2027 revenue estimates (about $19.2 billion today) higher before buying more.
Of course, agent orders are still a small slice of Shopify’s volume, so it could take a few quarters before they move those estimates much.
So what is Shopify stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Shopify could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
