Shopify, Inc. (SHOP) posted strong Q3 free cash flow (FCF) and FCF margin performance on Nov. 3. These good results sparked huge, unusual call option activity, as seen in a Barchart Report. Investors are bullish on SHOP stock.
SHOP is up over 6.6% today, with midday trading at $151.95. This is up from yesterday’s trough closing price of $142.57. That’s down from a recent peak of $179.22 on Oct. 12.
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Call option buyers believe it could be worth much more, as do most analysts.
For example, the average price target is $176.44 (Yahoo! Finance) from 55 analysts and $178.56 (Barchart). This article will delve into Shopify’s results and why investors are so bullish.
Unusual SHOP Call Option Volume
The Barchart Unusual Stock Options Activity report today shows that over 50,000 call options have traded at the $160 strike price expiring on March 19, 2027. That volume is almost 70 times the prior number of calls outstanding. Wow, investors are piling into these calls!
The latest premium paid was $18.05, which means call option buyers expect SHOP to move 17.2% to $178.05 over the next four and a half months to March 19, 2027.
Note that this is close to where most analysts have their price targets (see above). Here is why that might work.
Strong FCF Results
Shopify is one of the few companies that publish their FCF as well as their FCF margin results. On Nov. 3, Shopify reported that its Q3 revenue rose 32% and its FCF rose from $507 million last year to $816 million (+57.8%). In addition, its FCF margin rose from 18% to 22%.
Moreover, compared to Q2, FCF rose 24.8%, and its FCF margin climbed from 18.25% to 22%. Over the last year, FCF is up 39.8% to $2.661 billion, and its margin rose from 17.79% to 18.78%.
The good news is that analysts project 2027 revenue will rise 26% to $15.32 billion (Seeking Alpha). So, if its FCF margin continues to rise to at least 20% (still below the 22% Q3 margin), FCF could exceed $3 billion:
$15.32b revenue x 0.20 = $3.064 billion FCF
