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Shopify shares are on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain as multiple Wall Street firms signal optimism ahead of the company’s fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings. Baird raised its price target from $160 to $190, implying roughly 10% upside; Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating with a $175 target, citing expectations that GMV could beat consensus. Cantor Fitzgerald also lifted its target to $158 while maintaining a Neutral rating. Market focus centers on the November 3 earnings release and Shopify’s partnership with Meta’s AI assistant, Muse. Analysts on average expect Q3 revenue of $3.74 billion and EPS of $0.46.
Key Elements
E-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP) shares are heading toward a fourth consecutive weekly gain, with multiple Wall Street firms signaling optimism ahead of the company’s fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings release. Baird raised its price target to $190, implying roughly 10% upside from the most recent closing price.
As of Wednesday pre-market trading, Shopify shares were down about 2.3%, though the stock remains up nearly 1% for the week. Market attention is focused on the November 3 earnings release and the company’s partnership with Meta Platforms’ (META) AI assistant, Muse.
Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating on Shopify, maintaining a $175 price target. The firm noted in its report that a review of third-party data suggests gross merchandise volume (GMV) could beat market expectations, sending a positive signal ahead of the earnings release. Jefferies also views the company’s fourth-quarter guidance as reasonable.
Despite Shopify shares having already rallied on earnings expectations, Jefferies still believes that a strong Q3 performance, combined with greater clarity on the company’s partnership with Muse, could provide fresh support for the stock.
Meta and Shopify are collaborating to enable Meta’s personal AI assistant, Muse, to purchase products from Shopify-powered stores on behalf of users. The feature will integrate with Shopify’s one-click checkout service, Shop Pay, which stores customers’ payment and shipping information.
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke posted on X last month: “We’re excited to announce a deep partnership with Muse to enable agentic checkout through Shop Pay across all Shopify stores, giving users a delightful and seamless way to shop and check out through Muse.”
Baird raised its Shopify price target from $160 to $190, maintaining an Outperform rating. The revised target implies 10% upside from the last closing price. In the same week, Cantor Fitzgerald also raised its target from $145 to $158 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The firm expects Shopify’s Q3 GMV, revenue, and operating profit to all beat consensus, with sales growth in the low-30% range.
According to data compiled by Fiscal.ai, analysts on average expect Shopify to report Q3 revenue of $3.74 billion and earnings per share of $0.46. GMV trends and the company’s guidance will be key factors in determining whether the stock has further room to run.
Shopify shares are up 7% year-to-date. On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment toward the stock remains in “neutral” territory, reflecting a mix of anticipation and caution among investors ahead of the earnings release.
Analyst Price Target Changes at a Glance
| Firm | Rating | Old Target | New Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Outperform | $160 | $190 |
| Jefferies | Buy | $175 | $175 (unchanged) |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | $145 | $158 |
Note: Target price revisions were concentrated within two weeks prior to the earnings release, reflecting rising analyst expectations for Shopify’s Q3 results.
Judging from market reaction, analysts’ bullish expectations have not yet been fully priced into the stock. Shopify’s pre-market decline of more than 2% suggests some investors may be taking profits ahead of earnings or remain cautious about the recent rally.
That said, Jefferies’ view highlights that Shopify’s growth story is expanding from a pure e-commerce platform operator into the new frontier of AI agent commerce. If the partnership with Muse yields more concrete data points during the earnings call—such as transaction volume or conversion rates driven by the AI assistant—it could help the market reassess the company’s long-term growth potential.
Shopify will report third-quarter earnings on November 3, when the market will closely watch actual GMV performance, fourth-quarter guidance, and management’s further commentary on its AI commerce strategy.
