Northern Ontario communities are bearing the brunt of the province’s worsening homelessness crisis, according to a report issued Sept. 10 by Ontario’s independent fiscal watchdog.
Titled An Update on Homelessness Programs in Ontario, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) states that while major urban centers accounted for the largest absolute numbers — led by Toronto at 19,462 people and Ottawa at 9,431— small, northern service delivery areas like Sudbury face the highest rates of homelessness per capita in the entire province.
“By service manager area, the majority of people experiencing homelessness in Ontario are in large urban centres,” the report noted. However, “after adjusting for population size, four of the 10 service manager areas with the highest rates of homelessness were in Northern Ontario.”
The report also warns that the province’s known homeless population surged 23.3 per cent over a three-year period, rising from 62,252 individuals in 2022–23 to an estimated 76,741 in 2025–26.
The report also notes a rise in spending that is unlikely to return to original levels of funding. While the total provincial spending on homelessness programs increased from $297 million in 2013–14 to $701 million in 2025–26, driven largely by the Homelessness Prevention Program (HPP), the FAO projects that base spending will plateau $708 million annually through 2028–29.
Northern homelessness
It’s Cochrane District that has the single highest rate of homelessness in Ontario in 2024–25, recording 1,097 individuals experiencing homelessness per 100,000 residents. It was followed closely in the top five by the Rainy River District at 834 per 100,000 and the Nipissing District at 804 per 100,000.
Northern service managers — which include District Social Services Administration Boards (DSSABs) like Greater Sudbury and surrounding northern districts — are managing per-capita caseloads that significantly exceed those of larger southern municipalities.
The FAO’s analysis cautions that despite provincial commitments, the reach of social safety nets will soon begin to shrink.
The report also states that when factoring in inflation and the scheduled expiry of time-limited emergency funds — such as municipal relief and encampment response dollars— “real, inflation-adjusted funding will actually decline.”
As a result, the FAO projects the total number of households supported by provincial homelessness programs will drop by 8.6 per cent over the coming years, declining from a peak of 204,876 households in 2025–26 down to 187,205 by 2028–29.
“Going forward, the FAO projects that the total number of households supported will gradually decrease to 187,205 households in 2028-29, primarily due to the expiry of time-limited funding and lower inflation-adjusted base program spending,” the watchdog stated in its report release.
The FAO noted that while provincial investments in supportive housing helped expand coverage between 2022 and 2025, the projected slowdown in base funding growth means growth in housing supports will lag behind the demand generated by ongoing economic pressures, housing unaffordability, and high living costs.
As it stands in Sudbury
For many, the FAO report validates what local data has shown for years: homelessness in the North is not based on out of town service-seekers issue, nor is it a temporary blip.
City data revealsthat more than 70 per cent of Sudbury’s unhoused population are long-time local residents, with nearly half falling into homelessness before the age of 24.
While Greater Sudbury set an ambitious goal to reach “functional zero” homelessness through its $350-million Roadmap to End Homelessness by 2030, Ward 5 Coun. Mike Parent and others have pointed out that local efforts are hitting a brick wall.
Between 78 and 81 per cent of the city’s unhoused are classified as “high-acuity”, requiring intensive and supportive housing that goes far beyond basic shelter beds; however, municipal infrastructure remains stunted by a lack of sustained, long-term operational funding from upper levels of government.
With the province’s real funding trajectory set to decline after 2026, the FAO’s warning confirms the fears of northern advocates: without direct intervention, municipal roadmaps will remain largely unfunded, leaving northern communities to manage a widening systemic emergency on shrinking municipal budgets.
Jenny Lamothe is a reporter with Sudbury.com.
