- NVDA
- ^DJI
- ^IXIC
In less than two weeks, on Nov. 3, Americans across the country will make their voices heard by heading to the polls or mailing in their ballots.
Though President Donald Trump still has a little over two years left in his second non-consecutive term, the makeup of Congress during the second half of his term could be markedly different. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) have thrived since Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the midterm elections could halt this party in its tracks.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again.In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia.Continue »
Democrats are expected to retake one or both houses of Congress on Nov. 3. Image
According to nearly a century of historical data, a worst-case scenario is shaping up for the stock market on Nov. 3.
Although not every law passed on Capitol Hill has a bearing on Wall Street, our elected officials are responsible for crafting fiscal policy that can directly affect corporate America and, in turn, the stock market.
Heading into the midterm elections. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives (218 of 435 seats) and the Senate (53 of 100 seats).
According to prediction market Polymarket, as of the very early morning hours of Oct. 20, traders predict a 63% chance of Democrats retaking the House and Senate on Nov. 3. Traders also assign a 29% chance that Republicans retain the Senate and lose the House to Democrats. Either way, the odds are overwhelming that Congress will be divided beginning in January 2027.
Historically speaking, a Republican president overseeing a divided Congress is the stock market’s worst-case scenario. Online retirement planning platform Retirement Researcher examined the average annual return of the S&P 500 under four political situations from 1926 through 2023 and found only one outlier:
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Democratic president with a divided Congress (15 years): 16.63% average annual return
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Unified Republican (13 years): 14.52% average annual return
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Unified Democrat (36 years): 14.01% average annual return
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Republican president with a divided Congress (34 years): 7.33% average annual return
