Key Points
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JPMorgan expects mid- to high-teens year-over-year growth in third-quarter investment-banking fees and markets revenue, supported by broad strength across products, regions, fixed income, currencies, commodities and equities.
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Client activity and credit quality remain resilient, with nonperforming CIB loans below $5 billion and second-quarter net charge-offs near 12 basis points, though the bank is monitoring AI disruption, lower-income consumers and geopolitical and commodity risks.
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JPMorgan continues investing in strategic growth areas, including payments, blockchain and domestic manufacturing, while maintaining disciplined underwriting and selective exposure to AI-related borrowers and private-equity investments.
Doug Petno, co-president and CEO of the Commercial and Investment Bank at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), said the bank expects broad-based strength in investment banking and markets during the third quarter, while emphasizing that the firm is maintaining underwriting and capital-allocation discipline amid favorable but potentially late-cycle market conditions.
Petno, who was recently named co-president alongside Troy Rohrbaugh as part of the firm’s succession planning process, said his expanded firmwide responsibilities are not expected to materially alter day-to-day management of the Commercial and Investment Bank, or CIB. He said the CIB’s operating businesses have autonomous leadership teams and a “high-functioning operating committee.”
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“It would be risky to suggest that I don’t run the CIB,” Petno said, adding that Chief Executive Jamie Dimon remains “as active as ever” and client-facing.
Third-Quarter Outlook
Petno said JPMorgan expects third-quarter investment-banking fees to rise by the mid- to high-teens percentage range from a year earlier, absent a major market disruption. He cited strength across products and geographies, a strong pipeline and increased management and board confidence supporting merger-and-acquisition activity.
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Markets revenue is also expected to increase by the mid- to high-teens percentage range, supported by broad-based strength across fixed income, currencies and commodities, or FIC, and equities. Petno noted that the expected result would include a seasonal sequential decline from the second quarter, which he described as a record period for the business.
