Pre-Q2 Earnings: Is Shopify Stock a Portfolio Must-Have?
Shopify SHOP is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Shopify expects revenue growth in the high-20% range year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $3.43 billion, suggesting growth of 28.11% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and indicating 11.43% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Consensus Estimate Trend
SHOP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, matched once and missed once, the earnings surprise being 7.38%, on average.
Shopify Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Shopify Inc. price-eps-surprise | Shopify Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.
Key Factors to Note for SHOP’s Q2
Shopify’s second-quarter 2026 results are expected to have benefited from sustained growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) across merchant sizes, geographies and sales channels. Continued strength in North America and Europe, rising international adoption and balanced contributions from new merchants and same-store sales are likely to have supported revenues. Momentum among large merchants, including enterprise brands migrating from legacy commerce systems, is also expected to have driven Shopify Plus subscriptions, variable platform fees and merchant solutions revenues.
Higher adoption of Shopify Payments and Shop Pay is likely to have been another major growth driver. In the first quarter, Shopify Payments processed $67 billion of GMV, up 41% year over year, while penetration expanded 3% to 67%. Shop Pay GMV grew 59%, supported by more than 70% growth outside the United States. Continued payments adoption in recently entered European markets, Mexico and other international regions is expected to have boosted Merchant Solutions revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
Shopify’s expanding omnichannel portfolio is also expected to have aided growth. Offline GMV increased 33% in the first quarter, while B2B GMV surged 80%, reflecting demand for unified online, physical retail and wholesale capabilities. The Shop app, which recorded 70% GMV growth, and Shop Campaigns are likely to have supported customer discovery and merchant sales. AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores increased eightfold, while orders originating from AI-powered searches rose nearly 13-fold, indicating growing contributions from emerging shopping channels.
However, Shopify’s second-quarter profitability is expected to have faced pressure from the faster growth of lower-margin Merchant Solutions revenues compared with Subscription Solutions revenues. Shopify projected gross profit dollar growth in the mid-20% range, below expected revenue growth in the high 20s, primarily due to revenue mix and continued payments strength. Moreover, rising technology and credit-related costs might also have weighed on margins.
Increased merchant use of Sidekick is expected to have driven higher large-language-model infrastructure expenses, a trend Shopify expects to continue. Transaction and loan losses increased to $116 million in the first quarter from $75 million in the year-ago quarter, reflecting expansion of Shopify Capital, credit and payments products. The allowance for uncollectible loans also rose as the company expanded its merchant financing portfolio, increasing potential exposure to merchant defaults. Moreover, reduced foreign-exchange support is likely to have been headwind.
