Investing.com — Investment linked to artificial intelligence is generating a much broader boost to U.S. business investment than its direct contribution would suggest highlighting how the AI boom is increasingly supporting activity across the wider economy
AI-related technology investment is growing about 30% year over year, while other business fixed investment has risen just 0.8% and residential investment has contracted 3.8%, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn said in a Sept. 25 research note. The contrast suggests that, despite some signs of improvement in higher-frequency data, the strength of overall investment remains heavily concentrated in AI-related spending.
UBS estimates that AI investment has unusually large spillover effects, with spending on data centres, power infrastructure, computers, communications equipment and specialised machinery driving additional investment in sectors well beyond technology. The research suggests the AI cycle is becoming an increasingly important
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The bank’s analysis found that every 1 percentage-point contribution to growth from AI-related investment generates about 1.46 percentage points of investment growth in the following quarter. Of that, 0.46 percentage points comes from continued investment within AI-related categories, 0.30 percentage points through software and research and development, and 0.69 percentage points through other sectors.
UBS defines its AI investment proxy across five national accounts categories: electrical transmission and distribution equipment, special industry machinery, computers and peripherals, communications equipment and data centres. Together, those categories account for roughly 18% of non-residential fixed investment and about 2.5% of GDP.
The spillover is particularly visible in industries supplying the infrastructure needed to support data centres, including gas turbines, electricity infrastructure and utilities. UBS also pointed to less obvious beneficiaries, such as Japan’s TOTO, whose ceramics expertise has enabled it to manufacture electrostatic chucks used in semiconductor production; those products now account for more than half of the company’s profits, according to the report.
The research found that the multiplier effect has strengthened over time. UBS’s chart shows the estimated contribution from a 1 percentage-point increase in AI-related capital expenditure rising from 88 basis points in 1980 to 106 basis points in 2000 and 146 basis points by June 2026.
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