Translated by AIVersione italiana
Key points
- Looking ahead
- The productivity gap
One measure that has already been funded for next year and which could be extended is the 1 per cent flat tax on productivity bonuses. A tax which, once fully implemented, would stand at 10 per cent, but which the Meloni government has reduced twice: bringing it down to 5 per cent for the period 2023–25 and, indeed, to 1 per cent for 2026–27.
The idea is that lower taxation could increase the uptake of schemes governing bonuses and the financial benefit for workers: for example, on a bonus of 1,330 euros (the average figure shown in the 2025 tax returns), a reduction from 5 per cent to 1 per cent would mean a tax saving of 53 euros.
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The figures have not yet been updated, but they already reveal some unexpected findings. The Ministry of Labour is counting the number of active productivity contracts and the workers who may be involved. As at 15 September, the theoretical total stood at over 4.8 million people (4,827,721), resulting from 17,936 active agreements. At the end of 2025, when the rate was still at 5 per cent, there were 19,548 active contracts, covering almost 5.1 million beneficiaries. With the flat tax at 1 per cent, therefore, there has been a decline. This does not mean that the new measure lacks appeal: rather, it indicates that the 11,547 new contracts filed this year were fewer in number than those that had expired.
The impact on the number of beneficiaries will therefore need to be assessed in retrospect, taking into account the tax statistics from the Ministry of Finance, which currently reflect the tax returns submitted in 2025 (for the year 2024): in that year, the flat tax was used by over 2.2 million people, 55 per cent of whom were concentrated in Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Piedmont. These figures are in line with those recorded by the Ministry of Labour: of the nearly 18,000 active contracts, 63 per cent are in the four northern regions.
Looking ahead
A growth trend, however, is already evident from the figures for previous years. In 2022, when the flat tax stood at 10 per cent, nearly 2 million taxpayers (1,986,164) benefited from it in their tax returns. A year later, with the tax rate at 5 per cent, the number of beneficiaries was just under 2.2 million (2,192,644). This figure then rose to 2,246,672 in 2024.
With its latest budget measures, the Government has not only reduced the tax rate but has also raised the maximum subsidised amount from 3,000 to 5,000 euros. This increase is objectively difficult to take full advantage of, but it may have some impact: in its report dated 15 September 2026, the Ministry of Labour calculated an average bonus, as provided for in the contracts, of 1,799 euros, an increase of 194 euros compared with December 2025.
As for the beneficiaries, the technical report accompanying the 2026 budget estimated that increasing the bonus to up to 5,000 euros would potentially add around 250,000 workers to the target group. The eligible group comprises private-sector employees, whether on fixed-term or permanent contracts, with an annual income from employment not exceeding 80,000 euros.
The productivity gap
The 2026 Budget had allocated 600 million to fund the revised 1 per cent flat tax: 300 million for each of the two years. Any confirmation of this ultra-low rate in the forthcoming Budget Bill would serve to support productivity that remains stagnant, as highlighted by the CNEL in its 2026 report on the labour market and collective bargaining: over the past decade, ‘the average annual growth in labour productivity in Italy has been 0.3 per cent, compared with the EU average of 1.1 per cent, painting a picture of relative stagnation that tends to widen over time rather than narrow’.
growth in employment is in fact driven ‘to a large extent by the services sector, in particular those linked to tourism, logistics and business services’: sectors characterised ‘by high labour intensity but, in many cases, by relatively low levels of productivity and pay’. This phenomenon – notes the CNEL – “helps to explain why employment growth does not automatically translate into an improvement in the quality of work and overall economic well-being”.
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