Powered Shopping Traffic to US Retail Sites Seen Jumping 130% During Holidays
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Adobe Analytics forecasts a 130% surge in traffic from external AI platforms such as ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude to US retail websites during the November-December holiday season, far outpacing 4% growth from paid search and 17% from social media. US online holiday sales are projected to rise 6.7% to $275.1 billion, with Cyber Week expected to generate $47.5 billion. Cyber Monday remains the biggest online shopping day at $15.1 billion, while Black Friday sales are seen growing 9.2% to $12.9 billion. Discounts are expected to peak at about 30% during Cyber Week. Electronics and apparel remain the largest categories, while grocery spending is forecast to grow fastest. Buy Now, Pay Later spending is projected to reach $21.3 billion, with mobile devices accounting for 57.4% of online sales.
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Online holiday shopping in the United States is poised for a significant shift this year as consumers increasingly turn to artificial intelligence assistants such as ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude to research products before heading to retailer websites. Adobe Analytics projects that traffic referred from external AI platforms to US retail sites will climb 130% during November and December compared with the same period a year earlier, a surge that stands in sharp contrast to the modest growth expected from traditional discovery channels.
Adobe’s forecast, released Monday, calls for US online sales to reach $275.1 billion over the two-month stretch, a 6.7% increase from the $257.8 billion recorded last year. The projection, drawn from an analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to American retail websites, 100 million stock-keeping units and 18 product categories, suggests the promotional calendar will again play an outsized role in driving demand among increasingly selective shoppers.
The expected 130% jump in AI-referred traffic dwarfs the growth Adobe anticipates from paid search, which is forecast to expand just 4%. Social media referrals are projected to rise 17%. The gap underscores a broader behavioral change: consumers are delegating product research and comparison to conversational AI tools, then arriving at retailer sites with clearer purchase intent.
Adobe said the AI-driven traffic surge will be most pronounced during the peak shopping days. On Thanksgiving, traffic referred by AI tools is expected to jump 159%, followed by a 95% increase on Black Friday and an 88% gain on Cyber Monday. The company noted that shoppers who arrive at retail sites after receiving AI recommendations tend to convert at higher rates and spend more per transaction than those arriving through other channels.
Vivek Pandya, director of digital insights at Adobe, said consumers are becoming accustomed to conversing with AI agents, receiving recommendations, and using those results as a springboard to visit retailer websites. He added that shoppers are increasingly handing off the work of researching products and quickly organizing results to these agents.
The analysis defines AI-driven traffic narrowly: visits that originate from external platforms such as ChatGPT or Claude after consumers explore products there, then click through to a retailer’s site. Chatbot searches conducted within the websites of Amazon or Walmart are not included in the tally.
Even as more consumers lean on AI for product comparison, completing a purchase directly through a chatbot remains a niche behavior. Amazon has blocked access from Perplexity and Meta’s AI assistant, making it impossible to buy Amazon products through those services.
The five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday is expected to generate $47.5 billion in online spending, up 7.4% from last year and representing roughly 17% of the entire season’s total. Cyber Monday is forecast to remain the single biggest online shopping day, with sales of $15.1 billion, a 6.2% increase that marks a slowdown from last year’s 7.1% growth rate.
Black Friday online sales are projected to climb faster, rising 9.2% to $12.9 billion, helped by aggressive markdowns on electronics, apparel and appliances. Thanksgiving Day spending is forecast to reach $6.9 billion, up 8.5%, with mobile devices expected to capture a record 63% of that day’s purchases.
Discounts are expected to peak at roughly 30% below listed prices during Cyber Week. The deepest cuts will be reserved for electronics and computers, while Black Friday is likely to offer the best deals on televisions, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture. Vacuum cleaners and video games are among the categories Adobe expects to see notable sales momentum during the discount-heavy window.
| Shopping day | Forecast online sales | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | $6.9 billion | +8.5% |
| Black Friday | $12.9 billion | +9.2% |
| Cyber Monday | $15.1 billion | +6.2% |
Note: Figures reflect Adobe Analytics forecasts for the 2026 holiday season.
Electronics are expected to remain the largest online category, with $63.3 billion in sales, up 5.9% from a year earlier. Apparel follows at $51.3 billion, a 4.7% increase. Grocery spending is projected to grow faster than either, climbing 10.3% to $26.1 billion, while furniture sales are forecast to rise 7.3% to $33.4 billion.
Pandya said the data points to spending expanding beyond high-ticket items into everyday essentials, a pattern that suggests AI-assisted shopping is broadening its footprint across categories rather than remaining confined to big-ticket electronics and discretionary purchases.
Buy Now, Pay Later gains ground
Buy Now, Pay Later usage is expected to continue its climb, with spending through such financing options forecast to reach $21.3 billion in November and December, up 6.6% from last year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to generate $1.09 billion in BNPL transactions, marking the second consecutive year the figure has topped $1 billion. Black Friday BNPL spending is projected at $807 million.
Mobile devices are forecast to account for 57.4% of overall holiday online spending and 82% of BNPL transactions, underscoring the growing importance of mobile checkout and financing options for retailers.
Adobe also expects consumers to start shopping earlier than ever. October online sales are forecast to reach $95.8 billion, up 8% from a year ago, including $9.9 billion during the Prime Day event scheduled for October 6-7. Among the products expected to be strong sellers this season are Nintendo’s Switch 2, Sony’s PlayStation 5 and PS5 Pro, Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro, Meta AI Glasses and AirPods Pro 3.
The holiday forecast arrives against a backdrop of cautious commentary from major retailers. Walmart, Kohl’s and American Eagle have all flagged concerns about consumers’ spending capacity heading into the critical year-end period, as higher household costs make shoppers more selective and value-driven. The promotional intensity Adobe anticipates — with discounts peaking at 30% during Cyber Week — reflects that competitive pressure to win over deal-seeking consumers.
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