Translated by AIVersione italiana
Key points
- Opportunities with AI
- Investment in the sector and differences between the US and the EU
- Monetary policy
Generative artificial intelligence has reached half of American households in around three years: it took the internet more than ten years to do so, and mobile phones around seven. This figure is contained in a note accompanying the speech given by the Governor of the Bank of Italia, Fabio Panetta, in Kyiv at the annual research conference organised by the National Bank of Ukraine and the Narodowy Bank Polski.
According to Panetta, a central bank’s credibility also depends on its ability to understand technological change and adapt to it, as well as on price stability and independence.
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Opportunities with AI
In the short term, he explained, AI-related investment provides ‘a powerful boost to demand’, particularly in the most advanced economies, and the demand for computing power, energy and skilled labour may drive up relative prices and inflation ‘until supply catches up with demand’.
In the long term, the dominant factor will be productivity: a study by the Bank of Italy estimates that, for Italia, widespread adoption could add more than one percentage point a year to labour productivity growth. The extent of the gains, however, remains ‘highly uncertain’.
Investment in the sector and differences between the US and the EU
At an international level, investment in AI has become a driver of growth in the United States: net foreign purchases of US shares reached $742 billion in 2025 and over $260 billion in the first five months of 2026
Europe has so far seen much more modest effects, and when it comes to adoption, the US ‘seems to be moving more quickly’. The gap, the governor said, is not “set in stone”: even without being a leading developer, Europe can adopt these technologies just as quickly as other advanced economies.
Monetary policy
On monetary policy, Panetta advocates caution. Even the neutral rate is uncertain: higher productivity would push it up, whilst inequality, precautionary saving and a greater share of income going to capital would push it down. Central banks must remain ‘pragmatic’ and place greater weight on actual data on demand, activity and inflation than on estimates of the neutral rate.
The governor then warns about AI-related share valuations, which are vulnerable to sharp corrections, and about supervision: if many banks use similar models or providers, errors and disruptions can spread rapidly.
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