Prediction: After a Blowout Quarter, Shopify Will End The Year at This Price
Quick Read
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SHOP jumped 17% after Q2 revenue surged 34% to $3.6 billion, putting our 12-month price target of $155 within reach.
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SHOP’s 48% gross margins top AMZN’s retail business and its 34% revenue growth leaves BIGC’s single-digit pace far behind.
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Bulls target $188 driven by 96% B2B GMV growth and AI commerce tools, while loan losses doubling to $141 million threaten the thesis.
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Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) just delivered the strongest earnings reaction in its recent history. Shares closed +16.98% on the Q2 print, rising from a prior close of $123.30 to $144.24.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Shopify is $155 over the next 12 months, implying roughly 7.5% additional upside from current levels. Our research framing leans constructive on the setup.
Shopify was already showing signs of strong execution. The Q2 blowout, paired with a $1.42 billion buyback and accelerating free cash flow, transforms this into a compounding cash generator.
The Blowout That Reset the Narrative
Shopify posted Q2 2026 revenue of $3.58 billion, up 33.69% year over year, with GMV of $115.57 billion (+32%). Merchant Solutions revenue jumped 37% to $2.78 billion, operating income climbed 67.7% to $488 million, and free cash flow of $654 million represented an 18% margin.
The stock rallied 20.06% over the past month but remains -10.39% YTD and 19% below its 52-week high of $182.19.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Above $180
The bull case rests on operating leverage. Merchant Solutions compounds at 37% while OpEx as a share of revenue stays disciplined at 33% to 34%.
B2B GMV grew 96% in 2025, Shop Pay GMV rose 62%, and AI products like Sidekick and the Universal Commerce Protocol provide defensible edges as agentic commerce accelerates. The bull scenario targets a 1-year price of $187.59, a 30% return. Consensus sits at $148.39 with 10 Strong Buy ratings.
What Could Go Wrong
Valuation is the primary risk. Shopify trades at a P/E of 143 and an implied forward P/E of 101, with a beta of 2.59. Transaction and loan losses ballooned to $141 million from $80 million a year earlier as Shopify Capital scales.
