Deloitte: Holiday e-commerce to reach up to $319B in 2026–27
Deloitte forecasts U.S. holiday e-commerce of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion for November 2026 through January 2027, up 7.5% to 8.4%. Total retail is projected to grow 4% to 4.8% to about $1.7 trillion. The faster online growth rate is a planning input for fulfillment staffing and site readiness.
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Key facts, context, and what it means, in one minute.
Last season’s total holiday sales grew 4.1% by Census Bureau count, above the 2.9% to 3.4% range Deloitte had forecast in fall 2025.
Deloitte’s 2025 survey found 33% of U.S. consumers expected to use generative AI somewhere in their holiday shopping; product data quality now matters for machine readers as well as human ones.
Adobe’s and Salesforce’s holiday projections landed in late September and October last year, so the next two to six weeks should bring corroborating or conflicting numbers to plan against.
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- Holiday e-commerce expected to reach $124B | Retail Dive ↗· Retail Dive
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